Micah Ward
October 22, 2025
Fewer high schoolers than ever aspire to obtain a college degree, new research confirms.
In 2022, only 44% of high school students said they anticipate earning a bachelor’s degree, a decline of nearly 30% over two decades, according to a research brief from the Pell Institute. The researchers argue that this is a sign of growing uncertainty among our youth about postsecondary attainability.
The data comes after the Trump administration halted the National Center for Education Statistics’ longitudinal surveys.
The elimination of these surveys will make it harder to track the progress of high school students in order to improve education outcomes, said Sean Simone, vice president of research at the Council for Opportunity in Education and director of the Pell Institute.
The report also highlights disparities by parental education level. In 2002, 60% of first-generation students aspired to earn a bachelor’s degree. By 2022, that number had plummeted to 33%.
Among students with at least one parent holding a bachelor’s degree, aspirations dipped from 83% in 2002 to 53% in 2022.
