California Has the Most Nurses. Why Is It Facing the Nation’s Worst Projected Shortage?

Nurse.org

Jay Wiley

August 5, 2026

  • California ranks #1 on the Nurse.org Nursing Workforce Benchmark. The state has the most acute projected staffing gap nationally despite being the only state with mandatory nurse-to-patient ratios.
  • The 61,141 RN shortfall projected by 2033 is a statewide average; Northern and Sierra regions already face shortfalls above 25%, while Sacramento still projects a surplus
  • By 2033, every region in California will be in shortage, including Sacramento, which flips from surplus to deficit
  • 85.7% of California’s licensed resident RNs are actively working in nursing, the highest employment rate of any state in the Benchmark dataset

California does have the largest nursing workforce in the country, roughly 355,249 employed RNs. It does have the most robust public workforce data. And it does have mandatory nurse-to-patient staffing ratios, protections that nurses in other states have fought for and not won. Those things are real.

And yet California ranks #1 on the Nurse.org Nursing Workforce Benchmark with a severity score of 84.1, the most acute projected staffing gap in the country. The state doing the most to protect nurses is also facing the worst projected shortage. That tension is the center of California’s workforce story.

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