No, the U.S. Ed. Dept. Won’t Be Abolished. But Here’s What’s Likely to Happen Instead
Frederick M. Hess
December 11, 2024
I’ve been getting a surprising number of stressed-out emails from college students and teachers asking about what’ll happen to them if President-elect Donald Trump shuts down the U.S. Department of Education. They want to know what’ll happen to their Pell Grants, their schools, or their retirement benefits. The level of concern is remarkable for a 44-year-old Republican promise to close a big, distant federal bureaucracy. Given such reactions, it’s worth explaining what’s going on with Trump’s promise to abolish the department—and why a lot of the breathless coverage may be missing the forest for the trees.
First, yes, Sen. Mike Rounds of South Dakota has already filed a bill to disassemble the department, and Trump, as in 2016, has said he’d abolish it. But the department isn’t going to be abolished. How do I know? Because it takes a law to dismantle the department, and that requires 60 votes in the Senate (in order to break a Democratic filibuster). There are only 53 Republican senators—and at least two of whom, Sens. Lisa Murkowski of Alaska and Susan Collins of Maine, are no sure thing on this score.
Even if the razor-thin Republican House majority passes a bill and every GOP senator votes for it, Senate Republicans can’t get enough Democrats to get to 60. So, the department isn’t getting abolished. It’s just math. (Those Democrats who denounced retiring Sens. Joe Manchin of West Virginia and Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona for preserving the filibuster in 2021 but suddenly see its merits are, hopefully, feeling a little abashed about now.)
